Best in class, offensive positions: NFL 2016 Regular season
What defines the “best in class” at positions:
1. Must be a leader in positional metrics.
2. Have a memorable season i.e. when you look back on this year you will remember this person/group.
That being said, here is the list of the best in class for offensive positions (sans-offensive line and full-backs)
Best in class quarter-backs
· Cam Newton
By traditional passing metrics, it would be easy to argue who would be the top QB for the 2015-16 season. But what separated Cam, was his running ability and intangibles. Newton had 41 total touchdowns (33 passing, 8 rushing) andHe led his team to a 15-1 reg. season record. He also converted 56 of Carolina’s 136 first downs- only the top 3 running backs (Davonta Freeman, AP and Doug Martin) had more. Not only does he drive his team on the field, but he also is the essence of the team’s personality. He is beloved in the community as he is seen donating both time and money at charity events and has been spotted court-side at numerous Charlotte Hornets’ games. He also provided the league with the best touchdown celebration: he gives away any and every football that a fellow Panther score’s with to a young fan. I love what Cam Newton is doing in Charlotte and am looking forward to seeing what he does in the Super Bowl.
· Tom Brady
Brady led the league in touchdown passes and just as importantly, out of the top 11 in passing yards (he was #3), he was the only one with single digit interceptions. That is what keeps the Patriots in games: grinding drives, few turnovers, and touchdowns.
· Carson Palmer
Slightly below Brady in every category[1], Palmer consistently delivered the ball to open receivers and almost had three 1,000 yard receivers. He did what was enough to win 13 games and stayed healthy throughout the entire season, something that has been problem for him in the past.
Looking forward:
Russel Wilson
Wilson was reason I cut off the Brady interception statistic at the top 11; Wilson was 12th in yardage with only 8 ints and had 34 tds, good enough to be 6th in the NFL. Wilson seemed to get better once Jimmy Graham got injured, giving more passes to Baldwin and Lockette, who both and a memorable second half of the year. Wilson finished the year with over 500 rushing yards, which was needed as both their starter and back-up running backs got injured during the season.
Kirk Cousins
Out of all the 4,000 yard passers, Cousins had the highest completion rate(69.8%). He seems to be getting better and more comfortable in head coach Jay Gruden’s offensive system. Like Palmer, Cousins has a better than average receiving corps. and puts them in position to make plays. One can only assume RG3 will not be in DC next year, so it will be interesting to see if Cousins will continue to thrive without a constant QB controversy.
Blake Bortles
Bortles was right behind Brady and Palmer is a lot of metrics, except for completion percentage and interceptions: Bortles finished with a 59% comp. rate and 18 ints. He has shown a lot of promise but will need to eliminate the mistakes in order to lead the Jaguars to the promised land aka the playoffs.
Best in class running-backs
· Devonta Freeman: 110 yards per game, 14 total td
Davonta emerged as one the biggest dual threat running basks in the league for the season as he tallied 71 yards rushing and 39 yards rec. per game. He was very similar to what Le’Veon Bell did it Pittsburgh last year and I do not see his usage changing too much next year – the OC, Kyle Shanahan, used Alfred Morris in a similar manner while in Washington, although Morris was not as good of a receiver.
· Adrian Peterson: 106.7 yards per game, 11 total td
Picking up right where he left off from his year away from football, Peterson rushed for over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns for the 7th time in his 9-year career. Aside from the disastrous MNF performance to start the year, Peterson did all that was in his power to put the Vikings in position to make the playoffs. They did so by beating the Packers on the final game of the season to win the NFC North division title. Peterson also won the league’s rushing title that game, although he only gained 67 yards which shows just how much ahead he was of the nearest competitor.
Other notable performances
Doug Martin: 104.5 yards per game, 7 total td
Some might call Martin’s year a throwback, as he has not done had a complete season since his rookie year, and they would be half right[2]. Martin’s rushing and receiving yards were nearly identical to his breakout rookie season[3]. But in 2012 Martin had 11 rushing tds and an eye-popping 11 rec. tds; compared to his td output of 6 and 7 of this year… Looking into next year, if Jamesis stays out of trouble and continues to learn how to read defenses / develop the ability to audible into better plays, Martin as well as receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson will be the main beneficiaries.
Todd Gurley: 99.6 yards per game, 10 total tds
Gurley showed why the Rams thought they had to take him at #10 in the draft last year. The Rams looked to have a solid stable of RBs, mainly Tre Mason who was coming off a run-of-the-mill rookie year[4]. Gurley was clearly the best running-back in college last year, but entered the draft coming off a junior year where he tore the ACL in his left knee. He did not start until the 4th game, and that game he went for 146 yds and 2 tds and he was the main reason the Rams delivered the Cardinals their first loss of the season. Todd had 4 other games with over 125 yds rushing and some believe he might take the crown as the league’s top back as soon as next year.
Best in class wide receivers
“BIG, STRONG, THROW IT UP AND GO GET IT” type receivers: The first type of elite WR’s is the big guys. They are over 6ft. tall and thus have a bigger catch radius than other WR’s. These guys can go above and around their opponents to make unbelievable catches.
· Julio Jones
If there is such a thing as a work-horse wide receiver, Jones was it this year. Kyle Shanahan’s offense targets the #1 WR more than other any other offensive schemes and Jones answered the call, leading the league in targets (203) and yards (1,871). With a coaching staff that is looking to stay together, look for Jones to have another monster year in 2016.
· Brandon Marshall
After being seemingly ran-out of Chicago by being traded for a late-round draft pick, Marshall went for over 1,000 yards with his 3rd team; he finished his first season as a Jet with 1,502 yards . He led a receiving corp. that was underrated going into the season, as both Marshall and teammate Eric Decker bested 1,000 yds and 10 tds. Similarly, to Jones, since the coach staff is likely to stay together look for Marshall to have another strong season next year.
· DeAndre Hopkins
Filling the hole that was left once Andre Johnson left the Texans, Hopkins went for over 1,500 yds and 10 tds. He was the most consistent offensive threat for the Texans as they had a rotating door at both quarter-back and running-back. Hopkins had a low receptions to target ratio (catching 58% of his 192 targets) but a large number of those targets resulted in uncatchable passes. If Hopkins can put up these numbers with a mediocre team around him, it will be exciting to see what he will produce with a competent quarter-back in the future.
· Allen Robinson
By far the best candidate for the “unknown-to-household name” award at the wide receiver position in 2016[5]. He ended the year with 1,400 yards and 14 tds, also he was second in the league in yards per reception at 17.5 yds. Robinson could have been included in the other category of receivers as he is more of a deep threat than a physical player, but he is surprisingly tall (listed as 6’3”). Robinson, and teammate Allen Hurns, helped Blake Bortles make the jump from a mediocre QB to a QB with a bright future. If Jacksonville’s ground game can get better next year, look for the Jags to be in the playoff hunt in a week division.
“SMALL, QUICK CUT, ACROBATIC” type receivers – This group of WR get separation from their opponents from the quickness in their cuts and their ability to judge the QB’s intentions by finding open space in defenses. Since they are on the smaller side, less than or just at 6ft, they must be able to catch the ball in traffic and while stretching out.
· Antonio Brown
Having accrued only 37 less receiving yards than Julio for the year and 2 more td’s[6], Brown sufficiently defended his title as the best WR in the NFL, a title he claimed last season. Brown had 6 games with over 125 yds rec. and helped draw coverage away from the emerging talents of Martavius Bryant and Marcus Wheaton. The na-sayers may say that Brown did not have good games with Ben Roethlisberger throwing to him, and that is accurate, but the Steelers’ game-plan in those games was strikingly different than when Ben was on the field as they ran the ball more with a healthy Le’Veon Bell.
· Odell Beckham Jr.
Coming off a historic rookie season, ODB did not slump in his second year. Missing only one game, compared to four his rookie year, ODB finished the year with 1,450 yards and 13 tds. He averaged an above average 15.1 yards per reception but every time he got the ball opposing fans held their breath as he seemed to be one of the most elusive players. ODB still has yet to lead the league in yards or touchdowns but since his Offensive Coordinator has been promoted to head coach, do not be surprised if that changes next year.
What could have been: this is a look at three receivers who were on pace to finish in the top ten at the position, but due to injury missed seven or more games.
Steve Smith
Smith started off the year as hot as his notorious temper. He was averaging just under 96 yards per game and had reached the end-zone three times. Had Smith continued that pace, he would have finished with 1,531 yards, which would have been fourth best in the NFL. Unfortunately, he tore his Achilles in week 7, which immediately ended his season. The silver lining is that Smith does not want this injury to be the end of his career, so he is now postponing retirement for another season.
Keenen Allen
Just one week after Steve Smith went down with his injury, Allen suffered an uncommon injury that ended his season: a lacerated kidney. Up to that point, Allen was averaging 90 yards a game and scored four touchdowns. Thankfully, Allen is expected to make a full recovery and I fully expect him to have a fantastic career as he is still very young, at only 23 years old.
Alshon Jeffery
Jeffery is different than the other “what could have beens” as their season ended with injury, whereas Jeffery started the year injured. Jeffery missed the first seven games due to a combination of injuries: beginning with a strained calf and then pulling his hamstring. After recovering, he finished the season strong, averaging just under 90 yards a game and four touchdowns. Jeffery is also a young receiver, 25, and it will be interesting to see where he ends up in 2016 as he becomes a free agent this summer.
Best in class tight-ends
· Rob Gronkowski
Seemingly unstoppable, GRONK finished the year with 1,176 yards and 11 tds. He gained those stats on just 72 receptions, which is to say, once he gets the ball in his hands, he emulates a runaway 18-wheeler. A chink in his game is that, since he is so much bigger than most of the people covering him, defenders constantly get away with pushing and pulling him, more so than other tight ends. This is reflected in his targets to receptions ratio which is 60%, tied for lowest at the position[7] with Owen Daniels
Other notables:
Greg Olsen
The most reliable receiver for Cam Newton, Olsen was the only Panther to gain more than 1,000 yards receiving (1,104) and ended the season with 7 tds. More of a finesse tight end, as Olsen is known as a gifted pass catcher and route runner, he has been Newton’s security valve in an otherwise unproven or unreliable receiving corp.
Gary Barnidge
A relatively unknown player at the beginning of the year, Barnidge was of the few bright spots on a not very good Browns team. Barnidge had (by FAR) the best year of his career in 2015, finishing with 1,043 yards and 9 tds; he only had 603 receiving yards and 3 tds coming into the year. As the Browns are an unpredictable organization, I am unsure if Barnidge will be able to produce again in 2016, but he will be seeing softer coverages as Josh Gordon may return to lineup for the Browns next season.
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[1] Except td to completion ratio: 6.5 to 5.8 in favor of Palmer.
[2] Err ~57% for tds.
[3] In 2012 Doug had 52 more rushing yards and 201 more receiving.
[4] 913 total yards and 5 tds.
[5] On average he was the 26th WR taken in fantasy drafts, compared to Hopkins at 13th and Marshall at 19th.
[6] Jones and Brown both had 136 receptions.
[7] Only included tight-ends who had at least 46 catches this season.
